Iran has installed several cascades of these new models in production lines where they have steadily increased both the size and enrichment level of Iran's uranium stockpile. Centrifuge performance is measured in separative work units (SWU), which indicates the work required to increase the concentration of the fissionable U-235 isotope. Iran's ability to enrich uranium quickly has improved with its recent progress in the testing and deployment of more powerful centrifuge models. Such a weapon would have to be tested, which would consume all the nuclear material the dash produced. A dash to a single weapon would take less time but would not be practical. Such a dash would probably be detected before it could succeed, and would invite retaliation Iran could not deter. These additional steps, together with the several months for enrichment, mean that Iran cannot yet make a dash to a small nuclear arsenal within a practical length of time. For that uranium to pose a nuclear weapon threat, however, it would have to be processed further, and the other components of a successful weapon would have to be ready to receive the processed uranium. Iran’s nuclear program has reached the point at which, within a few months, Iran could enrich enough uranium for five fission weapons. The analysis below is based on those estimates. The Agency’s reports are only able to estimate its contents. Because Iran has reduced its cooperation with the Agency, it is no longer able to verify Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium. The potential is estimated as of mid-February 2022, the date of inspection contained in the latest public report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Since then, Iran has expanded its stockpile of enriched uranium, increased the enrichment level of that stockpile, and brought more advanced centrifuges into operation. On January 5, 2020, Iran announced that it would no longer observe any limit (such as that set by the nuclear accord of 2015) on the use of its centrifuges, or on the possession of uranium they enrich. With its thousands of gas centrifuges, some operating and some in storage, Iran can enrich uranium to a grade suitable for nuclear reactor fuel or to a higher grade suitable for nuclear weapons. It assumes Iran would try to build an arsenal of five warheads of the implosion type – the goal Iran set for itself when it began to work on nuclear weapons decades ago. This timetable estimates how soon Iran could enrich enough uranium to fuel a small nuclear arsenal. Department for Business Innovation & Skills.Department of International Relations and Cooperation.Embassy of Saudi Arabia in the United States.ROSATOM State Nuclear Energy Corporation.Office of the Press Secretary to the President.Ministry of Information and Broadcasting.Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade.Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.New York State Office of the State Comptroller.New York State Department of Financial Services.New York County District Attorney's Office.Permanent Mission to the United Nations.Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI).North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons.
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